To Go Or No?

That's the question we face early Saturday morning.  Naturally, we'd like to stick to Plan A which has us leaving Idaho Falls today.

However....

It appears we'd be driving right smack into what's called "lake effect" snow in the Salt Lake corridor.  We've experienced The Lake Effect before and it's neither fun nor pretty.  In fact, it's downright harrowing if you happen to be driving through it.  The Lake Effect brings everything with it, periodic white out conditions, often heavy snow and widely variable temperatures which can create almost instant black ice.

Meanwhile, the insane Salt Lake drivers don't bother to slow down.  If anything, they speed up...and pile up.

From what we can read in the Salt Lake NWS tea leaves from their 5:18 am Forecast Discussion, The Lake Effect would seem to become even more pronounced overnight.  If we happened to be camping, we'd be camping right smack on the edge of the lake at Willard Bay.  That might mean we'd wake up covered with perhaps several inches of heavy wet snow.

Getting organized to hit the road early when you are sitting in a big pile of snow is one of the least pleasant aspects of traveling to and from Arizona and Idaho.  We've been there, done that more than once.

Ironically, everywhere else looks good with no problems.  However, since our Plan A calls for us to park right smack dab in the middle of Ground Zero for prognosticated Lake Effect Event, we're probably going to stay here.  We will talk about it as the morning unfolds and make a "Go or No Go" decision no later than noon.


THE COLD UPPER TROF IS SQUARELY OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. A SHORT WAVE FEATURE ALONG THE UT/NV BORDER  WILL LIFT THRU WESTERN UT THIS MORNING PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING UP AND DOWN THE I-15 CORRIDOR.

 THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT COMES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THIS DEEP INSTABILITY SHOULD KICK OFF THE LAKE AGAIN WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SNOW BANDS LIKELY INTO SALT LAKE

 CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALTHO AS USUAL IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS. HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

 OROGRAPHICS SHOULD ALSO GENERATE SNOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN SOUTH ALONG I-15

THE TROF MOVES EAST SUNDAY AND SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY SPREADS INTO THE CWA BY MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN SHUTTING DOWN THE SNOW SHOWERS.